No amount of information resolves uncertainty

I can tell within 10 minutes of talking to a founder whether they'll make it. Not from their idea. Not from their background. From how they handle the sentence: "We don't know yet."

Some founders hear that and lean in. Others panic.

The panic tells you everything.

They spend six weeks researching the perfect tech stack. They delay hiring because they haven't figured out the ideal compensation structure. They won't launch until they've mapped every edge case.

These aren't careful founders. They're founders who need emotional relief more than they need progress.

I watched a founder spend two months evaluating task management tools for a team of four people. When I asked why, he said he wanted to "get it right the first time." What he meant was: if I pick the perfect tool, I won't have to feel uncertain about this decision anymore.

He ran out of money before he found product-market fit. The task management tool was great though.

Watch what happens when you ask a founder who can't tolerate uncertainty to make a hire.

They'll interview 15 people for a role that needed to be filled last month. They'll create elaborate rubrics. They'll do reference checks on reference checks. And they still won't pull the trigger.

Because no amount of information resolves uncertainty. You cannot research your way to certainty about whether someone will work out. At some point you have to say "probably good enough" and move.

The founders who win say it around candidate five. The founders who stall say it never.

Same thing happens with product decisions. The certainty seekers build prototypes of prototypes. They A/B test before they have enough traffic to get signal. They debate pixel placement while competitors ship.

They'll tell you they're being rigorous. They're not. They're just uncomfortable.

Here's the weird part: intolerance for uncertainty doesn't always look like paralysis. Sometimes it looks like recklessness.

I've seen founders make massive pivots after two weeks of lukewarm feedback. Not because the data suggested pivoting. Because sitting with "maybe this needs more time" felt unbearable.

I've seen founders fire good people in month one because they hadn't become great yet. The founder couldn't tolerate not knowing if this person would grow into the role, so they made a decision just to resolve the discomfort.

Bad decisions made quickly aren't bold. They're just another way of avoiding uncertainty.

The pattern: gather minimal information, make irreversible choice, feel temporary relief. Then three months later wonder why nothing's working.

Talk to a founder who's built something that matters and ask them about their early days. You'll hear the same thing over and over: "We had no idea if it would work."

But they moved anyway.

Not recklessly. They made small bets. They shipped incomplete things and watched what happened. They hired people who seemed promising and invested in figuring it out together. They made reversible decisions quickly and irreversible decisions slowly.

The difference wasn't information. They didn't have some secret data source. The difference was tolerance.

They could sit in the discomfort of not knowing if the feature would resonate. They could hire someone without certainty they'd be great. They could launch without knowing if anyone would care.

And because they could tolerate not knowing, they could act. And because they could act, they could learn. And because they could learn, they eventually knew.

The certainty seekers are still researching.

You probably have a decision you've been avoiding. A hire you haven't made. A feature you haven't shipped. A conversation you haven't had.

If you're waiting for more information, ask yourself: what information would actually resolve this? Be specific.

If the answer is vague or requires time travel ("I need to know if this will work"), you're not waiting for information. You're waiting for certainty. And certainty doesn't arrive before action. It arrives after.

The question isn't "how do I know this is right?" The question is "how bad would it be if this is wrong?"

If the answer is "not that bad" or "reversible," you're stalling. Make the call.

If the answer is "catastrophic," take more time. But be honest about which category your decision actually falls into. Most of the things founders agonize over are reversible.