The race for AI coding tools isn't new. We've seen this playbook before.
It won't be a winner-take-all market.
It's following the same path as website builders (like Squarespace vs. Webflow) and design tools (like Canva vs. Figma).
Those markets never had just one big winner. They split.
Beginners went for the easy, template-based tools.
Pros demanded the tools with total control, and often used both for different tasks.
History shows the real way to win here won't be having the smartest AI. That part will get cheap and easy for everyone to use.
The lasting advantages will be built on other things:
A Big Marketplace: Having tons of plugins and add-ons from other creators that make your tool more powerful.
Owning the File Type: Making your file format the standard, like Adobe did with
.PSD. Once everyone's work is in your format, it’s a pain for them to leave.Saved & Reusable Parts: Letting users build and save libraries of their own code and design blocks, which makes starting over on a new tool feel like a huge step backward.
Because of this, two main types of AI coding tools will pop up:
The "Canva-style" tools: Built for speed and ease. Great for beginners or getting a first version out the door fast using lots of templates.
The "Figma-style" tools: Built for professionals. Giving them the fine-grained control needed to build real, production-ready products.
Even how they get popular will follow the pattern.
The easy tools will spread from person to person.
The pro tools will be chosen by company leaders for their whole team.
So the winners won't be the ones with the flashiest AI.
They'll be the platforms that own the marketplace, lock in the file format, and become a can't-live-without-it part of their user's daily work.